The Role of ITMOs in Suriname’s Forest Preservation

Afghanistan’s mineral wealth could become the foundation of long-term national prosperity, but only if institutional design turns geological assets into credible economic systems.

National Opportunity
A major untapped endowment of copper, iron ore, lithium, rare earths, and gold.

Structural Challenge
Weak institutional architecture has prevented mineral wealth from becoming durable prosperity.

Financing Pathway
Transparent licensing, sovereign revenue stewardship, and infrastructure-led development.

Afghanistan’s mineral endowment could become the basis of a new national development model, but only if licensing, sovereign revenue stewardship, and infrastructure are designed to turn buried assets into durable prosperity.

The future of Afghanistan may depend less on the minerals beneath its soil than on the quality of the institutions, structures, and ambitions built above it.

Suriname, a nation known for its vast rainforest, is taking a significant step in financing its environmental preservation by selling carbon credits. It aims to become the first country to sell carbon credits under the framework established by the 2015 UN Paris Agreement. These credits, known as Internationally Transferable Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), are generated through the country\’s efforts to preserve its forest cover, which acts as a major carbon sink, absorbing more greenhouse gases than the nation emits.

Suriname, a country on the northern coast of South America with only 600,000 inhabitants, got its independence from the Netherlands in 1975. Suriname is the world’s most densely forested country, and aims to be paid for the carbon savings its rainforests provide, now with the help of, of all things, recent offshore oil discoveries.

Suriname has announced its first offering of sovereign carbon credits, together with London-based investment bank BancTrust and ITMO Ltd, a private company that structures and trades these instruments.

The plan is based on a global carbon accounting system created under the 2015 UN Paris Climate Agreement. Under that system, countries can trade sovereign emission units, called internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs), and count them toward their carbon reduction targets, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

With this first issuance, Suriname is offering 1.5 million ITMOs, each corresponding to one tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent emissions of other greenhouse gases). The reduction was achieved primarily through improved performance in addressing deforestation and forest degradation. Each ITMO corresponds to one tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent emissions of other greenhouse gases) that have been reduced beyond a business-as-usual trajectory. The issuance of ITMOs is backward-looking – this “vintage” refers to emissions that have been reduced in the year 2021.

Suriname has registered its carbon stock baseline with the United Nations. By maintaining and increasing this carbon stock, the country generates carbon credits that can be sold to other nations or corporations seeking to meet their emissions reduction targets. Suriname\’s forest conservation efforts are supported by the REDD+ program, which documents emissions reductions, notably 4.8 million metric tons of CO2 in 2021. These reductions translate into the same number of carbon credits, making the sale a key part of Suriname\’s strategy to access climate finance.

The sale of these credits is expected to attract investors due to the adherence to UN guidelines, especially as companies become increasingly cautious about voluntary carbon markets. While some experts have raised concerns about the rigorousness of these credits compared to private carbon markets, the government-backed nature of the initiative is seen as a way to generate much-needed funding for Suriname’s low-carbon development.

The plan is still in development. But government advisers said they hoped the country’s new requirements for fossil fuel exporters could help preserve Suriname’s rainforest. The plan could also help jump-start an international carbon market created by the 2015 Paris Agreement that has struggled to gain traction.

Backers hope that as the ITMO market grows, countries will treat their NDCs like bank accounts, and ITMOs like money. If a country goes over its carbon budget, it can offset it by buying ITMOs. Countries that protect their forests or reduce their emissions ahead of schedule can sell ITMOs to recoup some of the value of those carbon savings.

Furthermore, skeptics have asked why it would be cheaper or more politically attractive for countries to buy carbon credits from a rainforest country, rather than reducing emissions at home? And if so, does that suggest that the ITMO is priced too cheaply?

The ITMO trading market has gotten off to a slow start, with only about 70 bilateral deals signed through December 2023, according to data from S&P Global and the UN.

According to energy consultant Wood Mackenzie, nine deepwater fields have been discovered offshore Suriname since 2019. The discovered resources amount to more than 2.4 billion barrels of oil and liquids and more than 12.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. (For comparison, the U.S. figures were 48.3 billion barrels and 691 trillion cubic feet, respectively, at the end of 2022.)

The ITMO plan would require all companies operating in Suriname to purchase ITMOs to offset their domestic emissions. This would include major industries such as gold, bauxite and — crucially, given the expected boom in this sector — oil and gas.

https://www.ft.com/content/315d5693-8585-45db-ab43-9f0e77250ae5

https://www.rainforestcoalition.org/country-news/opinion-how-suriname-will-sell-itmos-under-un-redd

Afghanistan’s Mineral Future: From Buried Wealth to National Architecture

For much of the modern era, Afghanistan has been interpreted through the language of conflict, fragility, and geopolitics. Yet beneath that familiar narrative lies a different national reality: one of the most underdeveloped mineral endowments in the world.

Its mountains and terrain are believed to hold significant deposits of copper, iron ore, lithium, rare earth elements, gold, and other strategic minerals. At a time when electrification, battery storage, and industrial supply-chain security are becoming central to the global economy, these resources are no longer peripheral. They sit close to the heart of the next industrial era.

But Afghanistan’s mineral story is not fundamentally about geology.

It is about whether a nation can build the institutional, financial, and infrastructural architecture required to transform buried wealth into enduring prosperity.

Natural resources on their own do not create development. In many countries, they have produced volatility, elite capture, fiscal distortion, and missed national potential. Where resource wealth has been translated into long-term strength, success has rarely come from extraction alone. It has come from design.

Three foundations matter.

The first is a transparent and credible licensing regime. Without it, capital remains short-term, speculative, or politically distorted. With it, a country can begin to attract serious long-horizon partners while protecting national interest and public legitimacy.

The second is sovereign revenue architecture. Resource wealth must be governed through institutions capable of channeling proceeds into infrastructure, education, productive systems, and long-term national reserves rather than immediate fiscal depletion. A country that extracts without stewarding simply liquidates its future.

The third is physical economic infrastructure. Mineral deposits become economically meaningful only when they are connected to power, transport, logistics, processing capacity, and regional trade routes. Without these systems, resource wealth remains stranded beneath the ground, technically valuable but nationally unrealized.

Afghanistan’s challenge has not been the absence of assets. It has been the absence of the systems required to convert those assets into broad-based development.

Yet this is precisely why the opportunity remains so large.

Because the sector is still underdeveloped, Afghanistan is not locked into a mature but failing model. It still has the possibility of first-principles design. A serious mineral strategy could serve as the anchor of a wider national blueprint, linking extraction to infrastructure investment, domestic industrial formation, and regional transport corridors connecting Central and South Asia.

This is where the question becomes larger than mining.

The deeper issue is whether Afghanistan can create a credible economic architecture above the mineral base: institutions that inspire trust, capital structures that support long-term development, and national systems that ensure resource wealth strengthens the country rather than fragments it.

Afghanistan’s mineral endowment should not be understood merely as a buried stock of commodities. It should be understood as a strategic national platform, one that could help finance infrastructure, expand industrial capacity, deepen regional integration, and reshape the economic horizon of the country.

The future of Afghanistan may depend less on the minerals beneath its soil than on the quality of the institutions, structures, and ambitions built above it.

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